Global warming computer models download for pc

Our goal is to house a growing collection of NASA model datasets and provide intuitive interfaces for a diverse set of stakeholders. We provide access to classic technologies long used in the climate science community e. Climate modeling involves developing a computer model, integrating observational data both as initial conditions and for validation, and producing data products that are of value to multiple communities: scientific, business, and political.

Climate models can be used to study climate changes ranging from a few weeks, to millennia. The results identify averages and trends, not specific weather patterns.

When running their mathematical simulations, the climate modelers partition the atmosphere into 3D grids. Not a member of Pastebin yet? Sign Up , it unlocks many cool features! One of the goals of climate modeling is to quantify the role of humans in forcing climate change. Cutting Edge Climate Change module - with resources and activities for teaching This module also features a page about Teaching with computer models. Our computer models simulate the climate for the next century, producing predictions of temperature, rainfall and the probability of extreme.

There are two "sensitivity experiments" that are designed to explore the behaviour of the climate system, particularly how the climate responds differently to forcings that last either a short or a long time. The other three "simulation experiments" are various attempts to simulate the changes in global temperature that have been observed over the last years.

Forcing factors that drive climate change There are a range of drivers or forcings of climate change, including both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Some of these are simply known or estimated from observations -- e.

However, there are a few forcing factors that can be predicted using models that describe the processes that drive the forcings. I have selected two forcing factors for further experimentation: Orbital forcing of climate On very long time scales 10s to s of thousands of years , the sequence of glacial and inter-glacial periods that the Earth has exhibited during the last few million years are considered to have been driven by semi-regular wobbles in the orbit of the Earth around the sun.

These Milankovitch cycles alter the total solar insolation received at the top of the Earth's atmosphere -- and, most importantly, the seasonal and geographical distribution of the insolation. The model: orbital forcing of climate Provided by David Archer, in association with his book, Archer General instructions: Click the link above for a brief overview of the model. You then have two choices. Try this out, perhaps comparing the pattern for the present day with that for years before present The differences may not appear large, but bear in mind that the contour interval is Wm -2 : compare this to the global-mean forcing of 3.

A further point to note is that this model predicts solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, which peaks near the poles during summer time due to the long polar days. The actual energy absorbed by the climate system or the solar insolation received at the surface peaks in the tropics, because the reflection of insolation by clouds and by the Earth's surface particularly when covered in snow or ice tends to be greater at higher latitudes. Take a look at the first figure on the Insolation page at Wikipedia to see the difference the atmosphere and surface make to the insolation received.

Exercise: Use the "time series" option to investigate when the next ice age glaciation might be triggered by a big reduction in summer insolation received at mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. How far in the future does such a reduction next occur? Hints and outcome: Use the "time series" option, choose day day 1 is 1st January, so day is in the Northern Hemsphere summer -- it's actually 29th June and a range from which is BC, or years before present through to sixty thousand years AD!

Look at the changes in the mid-to-high northern latitudes e. There are some fluctuations, but it may be hard to see any big decreases. Instead, you can inspect the data values themselves: click the link to "pick up the data". This shows the data for all latitudes and all times, as a text file.

Far too big to examine fully. You should find that insolation was over Wm -2 at BP year in the file , during the "Holocene Climate Optimum", reducing to It then stays within the range to Wm -2 until 52, AD, before dropping to a minimum of Wm -2 in 56, AD. If summer insolation at 65N needs to fall below its present-day value to initiate the next ice-age glaciation, then the next glaciation is at least 50, years away.

Greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century The emissions of the CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by human activity can be predicted by the Kaya identity , developed by Japanese economist Yoichi Kaya. The Kaya identity states that emissions of CO 2 are the product of four inputs: population, GDP per capita, energy consumed per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed.

The future evolution of these four terms must be estimated from assumptions about demographic, economic, technological and societal change to generate the emissions scenario. General instructions: Click "run me" to open the Kaya identity model page. The page displays the equation of the Kaya identity. The identity itself is fairly simple -- it is "predicting" the four input terms that is difficult.

This model allows you to explore these by varying four assumptions about how each of the input terms may change in the future. Bell, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, A. Friend, T. Hall, Y. Hu, M.

Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, A. Lacis, J. Lerner, K. Lo, R. Miller, L. Nazarenko, V. Oinas, J. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G. Russell, Mki. Sato, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, and M.